Letter to Stakeholders, March 2026

Thursday, March 5, 10:46 am EST. Last month we highlighted the geopolitics of Japan, Greenland and Canada. Those were the “good ole days” apparently. Unfortunately this month the news (and the markets) are being led by a hot war with Iran (and a relatively quiet armed conflict with Ecuador). 

Over the past few days we have observed early morning stock market (unrealized) losses only to recover much of the short-term losses by the end of the day. The stock market is reflecting the typical fear of the unknown when it comes to war.  One “known” about this war is oil prices will go up. Expect to hear a lot about the Strait of Hormuz: a narrow 21-30 mile waterway that allows the Persian Gulf to access the ocean. Iran has effectively “closed” this waterway, threatening any ships trying to use it. This blockade puts about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products at risk (which is about 20% of the world’s oil consumption). Although the United States became a net exporter of oil in 2020, crude oil costs are driven by “spot prices” on a global market. To that end, we’re already seeing gas prices go up. Higher energy prices increase the price of everything (inflation) for consumers and businesses. This is one reason why we’re seeing the stock market jumping up and down: high expenses could mean low profits. Or not. It depends on the length of an unpredictable thing called war. You are familiar with unpredictability or reactionary markets and hired us to manage it. And we are and we will. 

Why the KOSPI Matters

One of the biggest reactions to the war in Iran is the overnight drop in the Korean stock market measured by the Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOPSI). The KOPSI was an indirect beneficiary of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom we’ve been experiencing here in the United States. AI infrastructure investment has made a run on memory storing microchips made in South Korean stalwarts like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Since South Korea is the 8^th largest oil importer – not an exporter like us – their burgeoning economy relies on cheap oil. Undoubtedly, US companies purchasing South Korea’s memory chips is a plus for the country but any probable production disruption is a potential disruptive cost worldwide. And our stock market is reacting to that too.

SaaS Apocalypse?  

Before we had another middle east war to worry about, our stock market was busy digesting the likelihood that online software (profits) may soon be a thing of the past. 

Will AI “replace” software? That’s a question that financial markets are trying to answer. And this is yet another reason we’re seeing stock market ups and downs (volatility).

So called “software as a service” or SaaS has been around for decades. Accessing software online – per licensed “seat” – has been both convenient for users and profitable for companies (and investors) for over two decades. Lenders have profited from the online software industry as well. If “AI eats software for lunch,” as now expected then all of the valuation of software companies are set to be “repriced.” This would translate to fewer “seats” licensing software, lower revenue, lower profits and higher corporate loan costs. Will these AI expectations come true? As of now, the major players in the stock and the corporate bond markets think so and that anticipation has drastically lowered stock prices of software firms. “In the short run the stock market is a voting machine but in the long run it’s a weighing machine.” We take that Benjamin Graham quote to mean stick to your investing principles. We will do just that, regardless of the narratives. 

10-Year Milestone

To commemorate our experiences with many of you, late last year Doug and I recorded a 10-year anniversary video. Reflecting on the last 10 years has inspired us to think about the next 10. We intend to grow and the investments we are making – as mentioned last month – are a part of that growth. We also want your family, particularly your parents and children, to be a part of that too. Whether we are assisting them with pro bono advice and/or directly managing investments, we want to ease the burden many of you quietly carry as the sandwich generation, between your children and your aging parents. 

We’ll talk more about this during our “Spring Check-Ins” – look out for an email invitation – and throughout the year. Just know with so much going on in the world, we see our role as easing the burden of financial/estate/tax/cash flow management for as many as 3 generations of your family. And we are adding resources to do that well. 

Jason J. Howell, CFP®, CPWA®, CSRIC® 

President

Jason Howell Company is the family wealth management firm that serves successful families navigating the "business end" of family wealth. We understand that “millionaire problems” are still problems -especially when juggling family dynamics, imposter syndrome and charitable decisions (without a roadmap).

We integrate family governance (dynamics), with traditional planning, philanthropy, and sustainable investing because our clients are just as concerned about personal growth and family preservation as they are about capital gains and wealth preservation. 

Jason J. Howell, CFP®, CPWA®, CSRIC® and Douglas W. Tees, MBA, CFP® CAP®, CBDA have spent decades working with families in the Washington, DC area and understand the unique ways wealth is experienced here. Successful entrepreneurs and family business owners often feel they must continually prove themselves; government contractors worry about the next contract; former Capitol Hill staffers and former agency employees privately question how to reconcile public service with private sector success. Similar tensions arise among professionals at our region’s many corporate headquarters. These unspoken dynamics can make it difficult for families to talk openly about money or make confident long-term decisions. Through a family governance approach, we help families create clarity, alignment, and structure—bringing together values, decision-making, and philanthropy so wealth can be stewarded thoughtfully across generations.

Our typical client families include dual income parents who work, have saved (or inherited) well and have just the right amount of fun! Prospective clients may be about to sell land or a business for an extraordinary "liquidity event." Regardless, we focus just as much on family preservation as we do wealth preservation. Our prospective clients recognized they:

• Need to “do something” with the cash in their checking/savings
• Need to start tax planning instead of just tax paying
• Need to reduce the isolation, guilt and decision fatigue
• Need to separate but align family wealth and individual wealth
• Need to reduce financial miscommunications between family members
• Need a plan to provide space for both family and individual philanthropy
• Need to separate business finances from personal finances
• Need to eventually diversify their portfolio away from the family business
• Need an investment strategy for income, “up” and “down” markets
• Need a plan to mitigate market, credit, inflation, and political risks
• Need to be sure they are choosing the right work benefits
• Need to plan for money while alive before what happens after death