Letter to Stakeholders, October 2025

Wednesday, October 9, 1:05 pm EST. It didn’t happen: September was “up” month. In last month’s letter, I mentioned the “September-effect,” history of September having the worst average market return. True to form, just as seemingly everyone was anticipating a downturn, it didn’t happen. As I mentioned last month, this is why we built your all-weather portfolio. And now that conventional wisdom is calling for this AI-based stock market “bubble” to burst, we are again, holding firm. 

International Market Focus

No one needs the Reuters Institute Study of Journalism to know that many of our fellow Americans have been avoiding the news as a form of cheap therapy. The domestic news – like day 9 of the federal government shutdown – is unavoidable. But yesterday’s stock market record, is good news. In addition to the growth of companies focused on artificial intelligence, your portfolio’s growth has been heavily supported by internationally-based public companies.  The Hartford Funds recently created a beautiful chart that highlights the cyclicality of US vs. international stocks since 1975 (we don’t use Hartford Funds, I just liked the chart). Fidelity has also written a piece about the advancement of international stocks/funds this year. Since our firm’s beginning in 2015 we have been a proponent of diversifying strongly into the international markets despite the slight drag on portfolios during those first few years. This year’s weak US dollar trajectory will likely continue to undergird international outperformance. But we’re not racing to add more international funds to your mix; we’re staying steady with the upwards of 30% allocation you already have. 

Even if we weren’t as disciplined about our philosophy, recent European news may have given us pause anyway. France, the world’s 7^th largest economy is having a hard time forming a government. While experiencing a US government “shutdown” we’re in no place to point fingers but as your family wealth manager I will point out the risks. 

France has had five prime ministers since President Emmanual Macron’s reelection in 2022. Earlier this week, the French government “collapsed” after just 14 hours of formation. As a member of the European Union that shares the euro currency, this instability along with France’s debt problem presents risks to the global economy. Unlike the United States, France does not control its currency or central bank so it's ability to control outcomes is limited; eerily similar to the situation Greece found itself in 2009. We’re monitoring the bubbling AI trade but also the challenges facing Europe.

Fall Check-Ins

We have begun our bi-annual check-ins. Thank you to those who have scheduled and those who have already begun meeting with us. Some of our client family have been furloughed and are worried about back pay. At the least many of our local communities including Fairfax County have compiled resources to mitigate the stress of federal employment today. See also the Commonwealth of Virginia, the state of Maryland and the District of Columbia government for additional recourses. 

We will continue to meet with clients throughout the month of October and November. In addition to receiving an update on your finances, we will continue to update your team of advisors so that everyone in your family knows:

1. You have a full team of advisors
2. You know who they are and where they are

Reach out anytime,

Jason J. Howell, CFP®, CPWA®, CSRIC® 

President