Letter to Stakeholders, September 2025

Monday, September 8, 2:18 pm EST. September is known for back-t0-school, the kick-off of fall and a decline in market performance. History shows a stock market “cyclicality” that shines a dull light on the month of September. The so-called “September-effect” has shown that of all months, September has the worst average market return. But two things are true: the average decline is about 1% and timing the market is a useless game. One more truism: living in unprecedented economic times means there’s just no telling what September 2025 will bring. Last month we described how your all-weather portfolio was designed for times like this.

Bad News is Good News? 

There is an ongoing debate about whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should start lowering the interest rate that banks use to lend money to each other. Lowering the federal funds rate not only helps banks but by extension reduces (interest) expenses for corporations. Lowering expenses raises profits (and stock prices) which is why institutional analysts, investors and political leaders like to hear about potential “rate cuts.” Near zero federal fund rates after The Great Recession helped to bring the economy back but continuing those low rates and other monetary adjustments through the COVID-19 pandemic led to inflation. When should the FOMC raise or lower rates?

The FOMC aka “The Fed” meets 8 times per year and the next time is next week. If you follow the news the FOMC’s decision to raise or lower rates will come from “Fed Chair” Jay Powell. Usually the decision to raise rates come when the economy overheats and inflation goes above the target of 2 or 3%. This is what happened in 2022 and 2023. The decision to lower rates is usually because the economy, specifically unemployment, is showing weakness. Last Friday, the most recent “jobs report” showed slower job growth than analysts expected. Managing job growth is one of the FOMC’s two jobs; the other is to manage inflation. So, could we get an interest rate cut next week? And could that cut cause analysts, investors (and politicians) to get excited about the stock market? Yes. And if that happens we will likely see the small company investments we have made on your behalf start to rise; perhaps offsetting some of the September-effects mentioned earlier. Sometimes bad news is good news in the investing world. 

Regardless, we will be watching, balancing and rebalancing your portfolios as necessary. 

National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA)

Last week I was invited to speak at NAPFA’s conference, held locally in Washington, DC. I live just in Northern Virginia, and it was my first foray into DC since the military takeover. My wife was out of town so I knew that if anything “happened” to me, I would need someone to pick up my daughters. I drafted a text message for my PTA President just in case. Thankfully, I never had to send it. Whether personally or professionally, I am keenly aware of the challenges, concerns and frustrations so many of you face daily. We are in this together. Doug and I find purpose in helping you manage your wealth. 

NAPFA are consumer focused financial planners who are in the business for the right reasons. Members are required to renounce earning commissions or kickbacks from any company, any fund or anyone. I have long served on the Public Policy Committee advocating for greater transparency in our industry and fiduciary standards.  

Speaking at the NAPFA conference, I shared how the acquisitions by the largest US technology companies have distorted stock market returns. Collectively, 5 large technology companies acquired approximately 191 companies over less than 6 years. In prior decades, your investment in small companies became your portfolio’s engine for growth. Large tech companies – those that have purchased those small innovators – now account for much of the stock market’s gain. We have long avoided the temptation to just invest in the winning companies or sectors and/or time the market. Your portfolios remain diversified with large companies, small companies, foreign companies, structured notes, bonds and money funds.  Your accounts are fully diversified and invested to provide the return your plan needs. 

Fall Check-Ins

October kicks off our bi-annual check-ins so expect to see an email from Doug to schedule a (virtual) face-to-face update to share how you are doing. 

Jason J. Howell, CFP®, CPWA®, CSRIC® 

President

Jason Howell Company is a family wealth management firm that strengthens the finances of families making the transition from first generation success to family wealth. We envision a world where wealthy families give, grow and govern themselves in ways that enrich their local communities. We do this by reducing the fear, isolation and guilt associated with financial success.

Jason J. Howell, CFP®, CPWA®, CSRIC® and Douglas W. Tees, MBA, CFP® CAP®, CBDA  have spent a lot of time in the Washington, DC area, and are aware that many people who are first generation wealth suffer from a kind of "financial imposter syndrome."  Successful entrepreneurs and family businesses are always looking over their shoulder; government contractors worry about the next contract; former Capitol Hill staffers privately wonder if they should "feel bad" for the money they now make. Imposter syndrome is common among people who work for the many corporate headquarters based in this area as well. These feelings get in the way of properly managing family wealth. We empower them to get organized, build a team of advisors and make decisions.

Our typical "first generation wealth" families include dual income parents who work, save and have just the right amount of fun. For long-time, family owned businesses we focus on much family preservation as we do wealth preservation. 

First generation wealth success stories and family business owners realize that they:

• Need to “do something” with the cash in their checking/savings
• Need to eventually diversify their portfolio away from the family business
• Need an investment strategy for “up” and “down” markets
• Need a plan to mitigate market, credit, inflation, and political risks
• Need to start tax planning instead of just tax paying
• Need to be sure they are choosing the right work benefits
• Need to reduce financial miscommunications between family members
• Need to separate business finances from personal finances
• Need to separate family wealth from individual wealth
• Need a plan to provide space for both family and individual philanthropy
• Need to plan for money while alive and for what happens after death