Thursday, October 8th, 4:59 pm EST. This time, September followed through with its traditional low performance seasonality. October came roaring back, hitting an all-time high in the S&P 500 but unfortunately so did the bond market. Thankfully, we don’t try to predict the markets on your behalf, we prepare. Armed with your plan and our resilient investment strategy, we can look forward to what markets deliver with anticipation versus apprehension. Like many, I am intrigued by the stock market’s reaction to war, rising interest rates and rising debt but I am not worried. This past month you, me and our government were (rightly?) encouraged to worry about the advances of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for human existence reasons. But for the stock and bond markets, we have your plan (and portfolio) in place.
Rising Rates & GDP
Last month we promised to “pay closer attention” to the bond markets in part because of the federal government’s recent involvement in managing interest rates. Neither the government’s involvement nor the Federal Reserve Bank’s decision to raise short-term interest rates has slowed the rise of long-term rates in the United States or around the world (except China). It may help to put our interest rates in context.
Much like your personal wealth, creditors don’t worry about your debt burden when your asset level is high. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the value of all goods and services (assets) produced by the country. The United States has the highest GDP at $32.1 trillion, next is China at $20.2 trillion and France ranked 7th is $3.6 trillion. But these days France seems ungovernable with a debt to GDP ratio over 115%. Creditors – in this case bond holders – will continue to demand more interest to lend money to a country that has more debt than assets. With high schoolers protesting in the streets, a lame duck President and governmental body with low political will to balance the budget, France looks a lot like the United States. The difference? With a GDP that is 9 times the size of France, along with twice the GDP growth, we are not France. But our demographics and trade policy are part of a global change that demands more resilient investing than practiced amongst our peers. Part of that resiliency includes a focus on family, not just your household but three generations: your children and your aging parents. Getting this right along with managing global inflation, your income needs and our shared desire for sustainability is how we are looking ahead in this 4th quarter of the year and beyond.
Philanthropy & Community
We are as committed as ever to use our platform for social good. In the coming weeks we will make our 1% for the Planet commitment to George Mason University’s Honey Bee Initiative. Next week Friday we are sponsoring a table at the Community Foundation for Northern Virginia’s (CFNOVA) Raise the Region Gala. Next week on Saturday we are sponsoring Langley Residential Support Services (LRSS) Fall Tasting and Auction Benefit. Next week on Sunday we are sponsoring the Vienna Choral Society (VCS) first concert of the season, The Shared Table, the Sounds of Community. In November we are sponsoring a table for Arlington Community Foundation’s (ACF) Annual Spirit Awards Luncheon. Both Doug and I have longstanding, intimate relationships with principals at these organizations. We are inspired by their missions and the larger we grow, the more we plan to give.
New Website & More
It’s never easy to announce a new website but here it is: JasonHowell.com.
No, it’s not done. It’s never done! But we can’t keep our light under a blanket. We are extremely proud of our position as a FAMILY Wealth Management firm serving up to 3 generations with family governance, resilient investing and proactive philanthropy. We intend to reinforce our impact around these topics by writing more, recording video and helping to explain how focus on these three areas is timely and relevant for today’s challenges. More to come.
Please book your Fall Check-Ins with us so we continue the conversation.
Jason J. Howell, CFP®, CPWA®, CSRIC®
President
Written by Jason J. Howell, CFP®, CPWA®, CSRIC®, President of Jason Howell Company. Published October 9, 2026.
This material is for educational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or legal advice.