Letter to Stakeholders, September 2026

Thursday, September 3rd, 4:01 pm EST. Once again, I have taken a look at your statements before starting this month’s letter. Even amidst the controlled chaos of world markets, you are “up.” Last SeptemberI wrote aboutthe “September effect” or the “seasonality” of September historically being a “down” month. And then inOctober of 2025, I wrote that all the talk was just that. We may see the “seasonal” declines of September but the“all weather” strategyI wrote aboutlast month– to deliver the most return with the least amount of risk to achieve your goals – we’ll keep your accounts and your financial plans grounded regardless.

Interest and Debt

Rather than seasonal trends, our attention is focused on historical shifts like theincrease in bond interest rateshere andaround the world. Higher interest rates don’t only show up in mortgage loansbut also in borrowing costsfor corporations and our federal government. “Markets” – in this case the bond (or debt) markets – are responding to uncertainty provided by an “on again off again”war in Iran,(Canadian) tariffsand aUS Secretary of the Treasurywho appears to be encroaching on the job of theFederal Open Markets Committee (FOMC). Fiscal policy is government work, and monetary policy is the work of central banks. When the US Treasury Department (federal government) initiatesbuying and replacing 30-year treasury bondsfor thestated purpose of managing interest rates(monetary policy), it maycause the opposite effect. This is because foreign and institutional investors may see that rare action as asign of economic weakness. We see it as a sign to pay closer attention.

A Changing World Order

When it comes tounsustainable debt, our country isnot alone. For example,France, theUKandJapanare also managing historic interest rates associated with high public debt. Like all borrowers, as countries gets more indebted, lenders – in this case investors – willexpect a higher return. Our finances are just one element of achanging world order.

As longtime readers of these letters, you have been privy to my reading list including books likePeter Zeihan’sThe End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization, andMartin Wolf’sThe Shifts and the Shocks: What We’ve Learned – and Have Still to Learn from the Financial Crisis. So it will come as no surprise to you that I am thinking (and looking) longer term than today’s headlines.

Last Saturday I was happily surprised to seePortfolio Construction in a Fracturing Worldon the cover of ourtrade magazinefor advanced wealth advisors. A portion of our industry at least is recognizing the “Shifts and the Shocks” are happening again.

Resilience

Your Fall Check-Ins, the time when you share family updates with us and we share personal and firm updates with you are starting next month! I’ll start by sharing we’re launching a new website, a newsletter and renewed emphasis on how we approach sustainability. The recentwarning by the United Nationsthat exceeding 1.5°C over preindustrial levels is all but inevitable was sad. TheLimiting Overshootreportstates that the opportunities we have left to change that prediction is dependent onacting aggressively now. But there is hope that our economic shifts may actually help us.

The international commerce and globalization thattook root in the 1980swas based on outsourcing, specialization, efficiency and lower costs.Aging demographicsin developed countries,rising wages in developed countries,persistent inflationandnew trade barriersare changing the calculus for organization in the 2020s and beyond. The“rise of resilience”as an investment theme may point the investor class towards the long-termvalue of sustainabilitymany have been advocating for years.

The Future

There aren’t many advisors (yet) that are adjusting their narratives around the structural changeswe see comingfor our global economy. We are looking at new opportunities to invest in natural resources, higher yield (interest/dividends) and resilient infrastructure. As a FAMILY wealth management firm, we are here to talk with any of your family members – or people you consider family – to help them wrap their minds around the economic themes we see evolving over the next few years.

And speaking of family, this summer my daughter Audrey spent some time with our firm to help us studyValue Creation Familyby Lee Benson. These wereher findings.

Jason J. Howell, CFP®, CPWA®, CSRIC®

President